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A practical guide to using a 13-week cash forecast to see upcoming pressure from payroll, BAS, suppliers, debt and slow customers.
Your profit and loss can say the business is making money while the bank account quietly plans a mutiny.
That happens because profit and cash are not the same thing. Profit is an accounting result. Cash is what pays wages, suppliers, rent, super, tax and the owner.
A 13-week cash runway is one of the simplest planning tools a business can use. It’s not a grand five-year forecast. It’s a short, practical, weekly view of what cash is likely to come in, what cash is likely to go out, and where the lowest point is.
Your profit and loss can say the business is making money while the bank account quietly plans a mutiny.
That happens because profit and cash are not the same thing. Profit is an accounting result. Cash is what pays wages, suppliers, rent, super, tax and the owner.
A 13-week cash runway is one of the simplest planning tools a business can use. It’s not a grand five-year forecast. It’s a short, practical, weekly view of what cash is likely to come in, what cash is likely to go out, and where the lowest point is.
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Why 13 weeks?
Thirteen weeks is long enough to catch the next BAS, payroll cycles, super, rent, supplier runs, loan payments and any big known commitments. It is short enough that the owner can update it with reality rather than fantasy.
A yearly forecast can become theatre, a 13-week forecast becomes a weekly operating habit.
The one bit of gold
Enter customer receipts in the week you realistically expect to be paid, not the invoice due date.
Thirteen weeks is long enough to catch the next BAS, payroll cycles, super, rent, supplier runs, loan payments and any big known commitments. It is short enough that the owner can update it with reality rather than fantasy.
A yearly forecast can become theatre, a 13-week forecast becomes a weekly operating habit.
The one bit of gold
Enter customer receipts in the week you realistically expect to be paid, not the invoice due date.
Split receipts by confidence
Don’t put all expected receipts in one line. Split them into:
Committed - invoices already approved, payment date confirmed or highly likely.
Likely - work completed or recurring income where payment is expected but not locked in.
Hopeful - quotes, proposals, late debtors, grant money, one-off sales or anything not yet certain.
That simple split helps you see whether the forecast is built on bankable cash or optimism.
Don’t put all expected receipts in one line. Split them into:
Committed - invoices already approved, payment date confirmed or highly likely.
Likely - work completed or recurring income where payment is expected but not locked in.
Hopeful - quotes, proposals, late debtors, grant money, one-off sales or anything not yet certain.
That simple split helps you see whether the forecast is built on bankable cash or optimism.
The weekly rhythm
Every week, update four things:
Actual closing cash.
Receipts that arrived or slipped.
Payments that became known.
The lowest forecast cash point.
The goal is not to make the spreadsheet perfect. The goal is to make decisions earlier.
If cash falls below the minimum buffer in six weeks, you have time to act. You can chase debtors, delay discretionary spending, negotiate supplier terms, invoice earlier, request deposits, speak to the bank, adjust hiring plans or prepare an ATO payment arrangement before the pressure becomes panic.
What to include
A useful runway includes opening cash, customer receipts, payroll, super, PAYG withholding, BAS or GST, income tax instalments, rent, supplier payments, loan and lease payments, software, insurance, owner drawings, equipment spend and a line for unknowns.
Payroll deserves special attention especially with the pay day super rules.
Every week, update four things:
Actual closing cash.
Receipts that arrived or slipped.
Payments that became known.
The lowest forecast cash point.
The goal is not to make the spreadsheet perfect. The goal is to make decisions earlier.
If cash falls below the minimum buffer in six weeks, you have time to act. You can chase debtors, delay discretionary spending, negotiate supplier terms, invoice earlier, request deposits, speak to the bank, adjust hiring plans or prepare an ATO payment arrangement before the pressure becomes panic.
What to include
A useful runway includes opening cash, customer receipts, payroll, super, PAYG withholding, BAS or GST, income tax instalments, rent, supplier payments, loan and lease payments, software, insurance, owner drawings, equipment spend and a line for unknowns.
Payroll deserves special attention especially with the pay day super rules.
What to do this week
What to do this week
Download the 13-week cash runway. Fill in the next three weeks first. Then add payroll, BAS, super, rent and loans for the full 13 weeks. Finally, add your minimum cash buffer. If the spreadsheet shows a shortfall, don’t panic. That is the point. You have seen it early. Give me a call and let’s chat about it.
Website disclaimer note: This article provides general information only and does not take into account your circumstances. It is not a substitute for tax, legal, financial, employment, cyber security or other professional advice.
Download the 13-week cash runway. Fill in the next three weeks first. Then add payroll, BAS, super, rent and loans for the full 13 weeks. Finally, add your minimum cash buffer. If the spreadsheet shows a shortfall, don’t panic. That is the point. You have seen it early. Give me a call and let’s chat about it.
Website disclaimer note: This article provides general information only and does not take into account your circumstances. It is not a substitute for tax, legal, financial, employment, cyber security or other professional advice.
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Got questions?
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Got questions?Maybe it’s time for a macchiato with Chris.
Got questions?
Maybe it’s time for a
macchiato with Chris.
Ready to kick-start your
self-made journey?
© 2026 Denari Advisory. Liability limited by a Scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Strategy and Site by Touching Base
Ready to kick-start your self-made journey?
© 2026 Denari Advisory. Liability limited by a Scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Strategy and Site by Touching Base
Ready to kick-start your
self-made journey?
© 2026 Denari Advisory. Liability limited by a Scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.
Strategy and Site by Touching Base
